WELL: In re Kevin Yaroch's open pondering:
"I'm still trying to figure out what happened to Kerry and Edwards in Iowa, and whether it will happen in other states..."
The answer is fairly simple, I think: no one who voted in the caucus paid much attention to what had been happening before about a week ago. They knew a few things: Gep seemed a little bit desperate, Dean was the angry guy with th annoying volunteers, Kerry had experience and Edwards was the optimist. Voters like experience and optimism, so they voted for Edwards and Kerry.
As to whether this will continue: look to who Dean and Clark go after, if anyone. Kerry probably needs (and can get) another win, and Edwards probably needs to get about 15% (which should be no worse than a fourth place finish). But the basic structural fact doesn't change: most people who are going to vote aren't paying much attention to what's going on, so momentum and perception count for everything.
"Thou shalt not extinguish thine anger, but shall master it,
that thy conscience may not be blunted by adjustment
to wrong causes."
-The Dutch Ten Commandments to Foil the Nazis
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