TWO THESES: I've been kicking around a lot recently, which I'll pass on and perhaps elaborate upon in the near future:
1. People like to lay the blame on various administrations for various failures in international politics (e.g. Reagan's funding of the mujahadeen leads to the Taliban and OBL), but what's really at the heart of every major foreign policy failure is the doctrine of realism.
2. We hear a lot about the rabidly anti-Bush and reservedly pro-Bush people, but not very much about the rabidly pro-Bush crowd, mostly because they haven't tuned into the election yet. I think the margin of winning or losing will be determined by how effectively they get out and vote (and to this end, I think there's a lot of room for Kerry to completely screw himself over). Three flashpoints:
a. The tone of the people the DNC puts into primetime for their convention, especially what they have to say with respect to religion.
b. The continued success of F9/11, which very well could end up hurting the Dems.
c. A particularly large (and at least somewhat violent or disruptive) demonstration at the Republican National Convention.