Anti-Climacus

WELL: I just played around with the poll numbers a bit and came to the following not-final conclusion about the Iowa Caucus final standings:

Kerry-- 32%
Edwards-- 29%
Dean-- 24%
Gephardt-- 15%

A few notes:

1. methodology: I took a recent poll where Kerry and Dean's numbers were close, then predicted the move of each of the candidates between now and Tuesday (based on my highly-biased perception of where they've been going lately; thus, Dean down, Kerry up). I further dropped all the candidates who would be unable to muster 15% statewide, on the assumption that if they can't do it across the state, they won't do it in enough caucuses to make a difference, then reapportioned their vote shares where they were likely to go.

2. assumptions: I'm assuming Dean and Kerry are going to partially block each other from doing well because they compete for the same votes in the bigger cities. This could entirely be wrong: Upper Left probably knows better than I do.

3. Possibilities: I'm not going to rule out the possibility of a Gephardt collapse below the 15% threshhold statewide. I'm also not denying the possibility of a much, much bigger Kerry win, or even an Edwards win.

4. Take it to the bank: Dean at #3, and his campaign going into a tailspin from which it won't recover.