ADDENDUM: OGIW points out that the below theory fails to explain the higher than normal involvement in Dem primaries in Iowa, NH, and various Feb. 3 states (she cited New Mexico). Two answers:
1. Those are all swing states*, where higher than average turnout is expected in the model.
2. For Iowa and New Hampshire, there was the impression that there was an interesting race for the nomination going on, a perception that has by and large gone away. The key turnout numbers will not be those that have already happened, nor the Feb. 3 primaries, but the ones after that: this will indicate whether higher turnout was a function of the perception of their being a race, or genuine interest in electing Kerry/beating Bush.
*the general definition of a swing state I use is small margins of victory in Presidential, Gubenatorial, and Senate races (split Senate delegations are also a good sign).
"Thou shalt not extinguish thine anger, but shall master it,
that thy conscience may not be blunted by adjustment
to wrong causes."
-The Dutch Ten Commandments to Foil the Nazis
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