20.2.04

LINK: I don't buy this sort of argument about Bush's decline in popularity--it doesn't necessarily show electoral weakness on his part. What it shows is that, as the election is approaching, Democrats begin to think the Republican president may not be doing as good a job as they previously thought, and Demcratic-leaners begin to lean more Democratic. If you believe (as I do) that the split in the country at the moment is probably about 45-45 Democratic-Republican, then you should be surprised to see numbers that reflect that, especially as the election draws closer.

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