19.2.04

DUDE, SAY SOMETHING ABOUT POLITICS: Josh Marshall (and OGIW, who probably can claim non-incidental responsibility for the win) is under the impression that the Dems' win in the Kentucky-6 special election means something. OGIW in particular avers that this deflates my thesis about lower than expected turnout in states that will go decisively to one or another candidate*. But, then again, look at the voting pattern of the counties in KY6--they're definitely largely a swing area, which means that's to be expected (though whether or not it translates to Ds winning the area in November remains to be seen, and I'm skeptical about it).

*Also note that this theory is based on a Kerry-Bush matchup, where people become less enamored of their candidate as time goes on. Edwards in the race might screw everything up.

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