THIS ONE'S FOR BECKY: So I checked out the latest polls on Howard Dean (with some trenchant analysis thereupon found here), and here's something that doesn't bode well for the general election:
Candidate support amongst Democrats, based on ideology:
Liberal Moderate Conservative
Dean 40 17 11
So it's pretty clear he's got the liberal wing of the party wrapped up, but it's not clear that he's going to do much better outside of that part of the party (Gore's endorsement doesn't help him much because it's unclear 1. how much sway Gore has amongst Dem. establishment types, who don't make a difference when it comes to primary outcomes but make a huge difference when it comes to national coordination of strategies* 2. Gore's not really a moderate Democrat anymore, and hasn't been (as Andrew Sullivan noted) since his acceptance speech at the DNC convention).
Let's be charitable and assume that party loyalty will allow him to treble his moderate and conservative support (by no means a clear thing). He'd still be winning only a slight majority of Democratic moderates, and only a third of conservatives... and this is in the Democratic Party, where his support should be strongest. Trouble trouble trouble.
*I don't think it's coincidental (and it bodes badly for Dean) that Liberman and Bill Clinton talked on the phone for quite some time after the news of Gore's support broke. This is the coming Democratic Party schism.
"Thou shalt not extinguish thine anger, but shall master it,
that thy conscience may not be blunted by adjustment
to wrong causes."
-The Dutch Ten Commandments to Foil the Nazis
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